Dev, Mahendra, S. (2011) ‘Climate Change, Rural Livelihoods and Agriculture (focus on food security) in Asia-Pacific region’ Working Paper 2011-014, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, August

This paper Focuses on small-scale agriculture and vulnerable population groups form effective climate change adaptive and mitigation strategies in the Asia-pacific region.

The impact on future agriculture under various climate change scenarios have been a central concern, particularly in developing countries with large sections of poor and vulnerable population. The issue carries even more importance for a densely populated region like the Asia-Pacific, also perhaps one of the regions in the world that is heavily dependent on agriculture for livelihoods. In the context of the multiple vulnerabilities that small-scale agriculture in this region has witnessed in recent times, climate change impacts add a serious dimension to the future sustainability of the sector.

Dev (2011) undertakes a comprehensive appraisal of the long-term effect of climate change in the various countries of the Asia-Pacific region, particularly on the agricultural sector and surveys the possible adaptive and mitigation policies that can counter the negative consequences of climate change. Adopting the different climate change scenarios as laid out by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the paper looks at the differential effects of climate change for a whole range of crops and derives the consequent implications for food security and under-nutrition in the region. The general approach followed by the author for tracing vulnerabilities of agriculture sector and the larger economies to climate change has been IPCC’s concept of ‘exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity’.

Exposure is measured by past and present climate trends and variability, which in Asia reveal a general increase in surface air temperature, more pronounced during winter than in summer. Increasing trends in temperature have been observed across the sub-regions of Asia, more predominant in North Asia. Rainfall trends show declining trends in annual mean rainfall are observed in North-East and North China, coastal belts and arid plains of Pakistan, parts of North-East India, Indonesia, Philippines and some areas in Japan. On the other hand, annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends in Western China, South-Eastern coast of China, Changjiang Valley, Bangladesh, Arabian Peninsula and western coasts of the Philippines.

Based on selected indicators of climate change and criteria of a temperature increase by at least 2°C and a change in annual precipitation levels by at least 20%, 26 countries in the Asia-Pacific region are found to be seriously exposed to climate change, many of which are island nations or have significant mountainous or coastal regions. Countries with agricultural employment above 40% were considered highly sensitive and 12 countries fell in this category. High poverty rates (higher than 30 %) within such highly sensitive countries meant that they also had a low adaptive capacity. Bangladesh, India, Lao PDR, Nepal and Timor Leste were classified as countries with low adaptive capacity according to this criterion. Within nations, vulnerable groups like women, children, indigenous people, coastal inhabitants and mountain dwellers were identified as target groups for climate change mitigation programmes and funds.

The paper assesses the impact of climate change on crop production for different sub-regions in the Asia-Pacific. As per the model developed for different climate scenarios by Nelson et.al., rice production will decline by 14 %  by 2050 in South Asia; wheat by nearly 49% and maize, millets and sorghum by around 19% over the same period. The results are mixed for the East Asia and Pacific sub-region. Rice production declines by about 10% while wheat production increases slightly. There is an additional rise in prices due to climate change for food commodities including meat in the countries of this region.

Interrogating the implications of these developments for under-nutrition and malnourishment in the region, the study points out that calorie availability per person in the region will decline by between 170 to 200 Kcal under different climate scenarios by 2050. The number of malnourished children in South Asia would decline from 76 million in 2000 to 52 million without climate change in 2050 but with climate change the same would be 59 million in 2050. The author concludes that there are serious threats imminent to the food security of the already poor and low-income earning population of this region.

Given the contribution of chemical intensive and high-yielding agriculture that occurs through direct channels like the exhuming of methane gases that are inherent in intensive livestock production or indirect channels where monocultures destroy forests, the study prescribes the adoption of Green technologies that can substitute the erstwhile Green Revolution in Asia yet sustain the livelihoods of millions of farmers. Ecologically sound practices like conservation farming, integrated pest management, integrated nutrient supply and natural resources conservation needs to be promoted.

The paper concludes on the note of promoting climate-smart agriculture which preserves the soil and the environment as an important component of the larger mitigation strategy that is required to battle the negative effects of climate change in the region. The study also points out to the need for empowerment of vulnerable groups like women and indigenous people for better climate management and reduction of actual costs required for climate change mitigation.