Enabling poor rural people
to overcome poverty
The IFAD Near East and North Africa Division (PN) is planning to prepare a new country strategic opportunities paper (COSOP) for Syria in 2001 to launch a new programming cycle. The division requested the Office of Evaluation and Studies (OE) to undertake a country portfolio evaluation (CPE) as a prelude to the strategy formulation process. The purpose of this CPE is to assess the Syria/IFAD cooperation experience and derive strategic and operational directions for the future and present portfolio of projects.
Cooperation between Syria and IFAD started in 1982. Since then, the Fund has financed five projects in Syria, with a total cost of USD 350 million, of which IFAD loans amount to USD 80 million. Cofinanciers have been the Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development (AFESD) (USD 145 million), the World Bank (USD 10 million), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (USD 3 million), the Government of Syria (USD 101 million) and the Cooperative Agriculture Bank (USD 11 million). AFESD is the cofinancier and cooperating institution (CI) for the four ongoing projects, and the World Bank was the CI for the first, and the only closed, project.
Closely following the new approach to evaluation, the CPE consisted of an assessment with partners of the progress and impact of the portfolio. In the preparatory stage, a background paper was completed on available project design, implementation, evaluation and policy documents. This served as a starting point for the CPE. Next, a brief field reconnaissance mission visited Syria to discuss with partners their expectations, priorities, desired focus and modus operandi of the CPE. The results of this were compiled in an approach paper that included specification of the main CPE issues, methodology, mission composition and the core learning partnership (CLP).
Fielded during May/June 2000, the CPE mission traveled extensively in all five project areas and used participatory methodology to assess portfolio achievements. The mission concluded its fieldwork with a national-level evaluation workshop designed to allow participants to discuss the preliminary findings with a wide range of partners, including IFAD staff from OE and PN, CI staff, government and project staff, community-based organizations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and donors/partners. The results of the workshop directed the main emphasis of the CPE report. The completion agreement is expected to be finalized at the CPE round-table workshop, to be held in Damascus during the first half of 2001 with the participation of evaluation committee members.
The macro economic and sectoral context
The Macroeconomic Framework
For the last three decades, the economy of Syria has operated under a socialist-style system of centralized planning. Since the late eighties, however, the Government started implementing a gradual liberalization programme, which has produced dividends. Growth in most of the nineties was impressive, averaging more than 7% a year1, which led to a real improvement in per capita income. This is mainly attributed to large increases in agricultural and industrial production, the discovery and exploration of oil, and remittances from Syrians working in Gulf countries. Conditions in the late nineties, however, were less favourable, and growth slowed to 2.5% in 1997. The 1999-2000 oil price increases improved the economic situation, and, in 2000, the country is likely to register an increase in export earnings as well as in growth rate, despite the severe droughts experienced these past two years. The inflation rate was estimated by UNDP at 2.2% in 1998.
The population of Syria in 2000 was approximately 17 million, increasing at 3.3% per annum. The rural population accounts for about 50% of the total, but the urbanization rate is increasing. In 1994, almost half the population was 14 years old or younger, leading to a high dependency ratio. Life expectancy at birth has increased remarkably, from 50 years in 1960 to 67 years in 1995, basically as a result of improved access to better health services and mothers' education. As per UNDP and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data, the food security situation has improved significantly since the mid-seventies. There has been a significant increase in the adult literacy rate over the last three decades (from 40% in 1970 to 89% in 1994), and in the provision of basic health services (from 70% to 90% of the population). Gross domestic product (GDP) per head in 2000 is estimated at USD 1 022.
The agricultural sector and policies
The agricultural sector contributes about 25% of GDP, generates about 20% of non-oil exports and is a major source of raw materials for the processing industries. The major field crops grown are wheat, barley, cotton, sugar beet, tobacco and lentils, and the main fruits are olives, grapes, apples, almonds, pistachios and citrus. Although just about one third of cultivated land is irrigated, about two thirds on average of total crop production originates in irrigated agriculture. Livestock contribute around 37% of agricultural GDP, but this is subject to large fluctuations as a result of drought and other natural calamities.
Broad-based land reform and the nationalization of larger commercial farms have transferred ownership of much of the land to the rural peasantry. At present the farming sector is more or less dominated by smallholder agriculture. For planning and policy purposes the country is divided into five agricultural settlements zones (ASZs), based on a number of variables of which the most important are annual precipitation and altitude. Rainfall varies from 600 mm per year in the higher areas of ASZ 1 to under 100 mm in the extensive dryland areas of ASZ 5. The average size of holdings in ASZs 1 and 2 is about 5 ha (much smaller for irrigated areas); this increases in ASZs 3 and 4, but in ASZ 5, where the extensive rangelands are state property, holding sizes are very small and concentrated around oases.
The Government's agricultural policy stresses the production of adequate food to meet the expanding needs resulting from high population growth and urbanization. During the seventies and most of the eighties, the explicitly stated goal was that of food self-sufficiency. With its liberalization policies, the Government is increasingly focusing on food security rather than on food self-sufficiency, and emphasising production incentives, gradual liberalization of international trade and a more favourable climate for private investment. It has gradually relaxed control in several areas, including cropping choice, output pricing, access to imported inputs, distribution of fertilizers, improved seeds and livestock breeds, exchange rates and marketing arrangements. Nevertheless, there still exists a degree of support for wheat production (and a few other crops) in order to maintain a desirable level of domestic production and support for the consumers of selected basic staples. Land reclamation and intensification have been important elements of the Government's agricultural policy. Between 1985 and 1998, the production of wheat, barley, olives and red meat increased by 240%, 117%, 424% and 168%, respectively. These increases reflect mostly increased productivity, as cultivated areas have not increased proportionately.
Rural poverty
Annual per capita income in rural areas is estimated at two thirds of the national average. Education facilities, particularly beyond the elementary level, are limited in remote rural areas and the Badia. Access to health services is also much lower in rural areas. While systematic and detailed data on rural poverty are not available, it is recognized that the main contributing factors to poverty are: (i) small farm holdings shared by large rural households (per capita landholding is less than 0.2 ha); (ii) low production potential of land (low fertility, soil erosion, high rockiness, desert land, highly fragmented holdings); (iii) low and unreliable rainfall; (iv) removal or degradation of natural vegetation, and; (v) limited employment opportunities. The survival strategies for the rural poor include off-season employment as casual labourers (in the urban areas and on private or state farms); temporary migration of part or all of the family (mainly to Lebanon); the movement of nomadic tribes or clans to sites adjacent to irrigation schemes to ensure adequate feed supplies for their flocks, especially in drought years; and remittances from family members working abroad.
Gender aspects of rural poverty
There are a number of socio-economic factors that make rural women more exposed than men to poverty. Women play a major role in agriculture in Syria. Forty-five per cent of farm family labour is provided by unpaid females (100% for the care of animals)2. However, women's control of agricultural resources is low (land, only 5%, animals, about 7%-8%, and agricultural machinery, 1%). The adult literacy rate is much lower for rural women than the national average. Lack of control over land hinders women's access to equipment, credit and other services. Women play only small roles in marketing and have limited decision-making power within the household, including in the disposal of family income. While the law recognizes the right of women to inherit, women are often culturally pressured to waive their right to land inheritance in favour of their brothers or male offspring. Given the extensive out-migration of males, it is probable that there is a sizeable number of de facto female heads of households, but reliable statistics are not available.
Donor support
Syria used to receive economic and financial assistance from the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc. It is estimated that about half of the country's outstanding external debt is with the Russian Ferderation, while the World Bank is also owed large accumulations of arrears. Recently the Government resumed payments to the World Bank. A poverty alleviation strategy is being compiled with the assistance of UNDP to establish a future framework for donor assistance. In addition to IFAD, regional financial institutions such as AFESD, the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and the European Union have continued to support economic development in Syria. Bilateral support from France, Germany, Italy and Japan, among others, has been steadily increasing.
1/ Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).