Impact of the portfolio to date

Incremental benefits from land and crop development

In terms of the Government's objectives of increasing agricultural production and food security, especially in rainfed areas, and halting migration to the towns, de-rocking has been an unmitigated success. It is difficult to conceive of an investment in agriculture that could have had a more dramatic effect - and is possibly on par with providing irrigation to dry areas. The increase in areas planted with apple and olive trees nationally reported by MAAR during the implementation period of the present portfolio amounts to just over 104 000 ha. Of this, IFAD-supported projects have contributed about 40%. For individual farmers, de-rocking significantly increases the area available for planting; even if allowances are made for the lines and piles of rocks left behind, a farmer can see the area available for planting double as a result of rock removal. In addition, de-rocking permits easier ploughing and seedbed preparation and increases water infiltration and retention. Following de-rocking, the value of the land multiplies. However, there are some signs that de-rocking may be having some adverse environmental effects, which could affect the sustainability of benefits (see paragraphs 59 and 84).

Evaluation estimates (SRADP II) suggest that land reclamation has resulted in increased production and yields of field and tree crops. Wheat yields after reclamation were estimated at 30% more than those pre-project, giving a net incremental income of SYP 7 200 (USD 156) per ha. It should be noted that these yield increases are still below appraisal targets. For fruit trees, given present performance levels, incremental annual incomes of up to SYP 70 000 per ha (USD 1 522) at full development can be expected. In neither case did farmers report any difficulties in repaying the loans from CAB for de-rocking; often these loans were repaid in the first year. Not surprisingly, farmer reactions to de-rocking activities have been overwhelmingly positive.

Distributional impact

Shares in the benefits described above will be obtained by farmers in direct proportion to the size of their landholdings. Hence, those farmers with more land will obtain greater increases in incomes, and as land values rise, this will result in greater wealth disparities. In addition, because larger farmers are often more capable of taking advantage of technical and marketing opportunities, the long-term effects of de-rocking will in all likelihood favour this group. The current system of uniform subsidies for land development has not taken into consideration this distributional aspect.

Environmental impact of de-rocking

The CPE has found that possible environmental impact from de-rocking is not being given adequate attention. De-rocking may encourage such factors as increased surface erosion and, possibly, changes to the hydrogeology caused by alterations in run-off patterns. The CPE found that some farmers were reporting that rocks were reappearing in their fields. This can be explained by the loss of topsoil, implying the occurrence of erosion, especially on sloping terrain. De-rocking in some fragile soil may also lead to degradation. Some evidence of this exists from the hillsides of Sweida Quneitra and Jebel Al Hoss. If no action is taken to address this, the very significant benefits obtained from de-rocking cannot be considered permanent. Other changes may also be occurring, such as alteration to the floral habitat and a reduction in the variety of the natural fauna; the extent of such changes and their associated impacts are at present unknown because they have not been assessed. Longer-term effects are likely to include not only intensified land use, but also increased population density: these changes are likely to be beneficial, but their extent and impact will remain unknown unless action is taken quickly to establish a monitoring mechanism. Environmental considerations were an important feature of the IFAD strategy drawn up in 1992 (paragraph 13).

Incremental benefits from livestock

A series of livestock models⁸ reflecting local practices prepared by the evaluation confirmed the very satisfactory incomes obtainable from livestock activities in comparison with other IGAs, partly explaining these activities' popularity. In addition, many beneficiaries managed to increase the size of their flocks or herds, either through the purchase of additional animals or by retaining offspring. In the case of dairying, loan repayments made in the first three years meant that there was no short-term profit from this activity, but thereafter earnings were reportedly high. Poultry was not seen as a major activity for income-generation but was reported as providing useful additions to the family food supply.

Institutional impact: extension and training

Farmers (and staff) appreciated the project-provided extension and training and found it to be useful and relevant. The CPE found evidence of improving yield levels of field and tree crops and greater uptake of technology. For example the use of improved varieties of wheat had increased from 0 to 26% on rainfed land, nearly all plantings of apples were of new varieties, and nitrogen use had increased by about 50% since 1990, and phosphate by 33%.⁹ The participatory extension approach initiated through SRADP-II is making a lasting impact, and being replicated by other projects. For BRDP, the participatory approach to training has already produced a better understanding and reinforcement of trust between herders and officials as well as the shifting of beneficiaries' attitudes from passive recipients to active participants. The changes in approach to extension and training as a result of projects activities are promising and have set an upward trend for participatory approaches. These elements combined have had no doubt a positive impact on the institutional capacity of MAAR.

Institutional impact: credit

The present portfolio has had a major impact on the lending policies of CAB, in that CAB has relaxed its credit terms, and enshrined these changes in formal agreements. The changes affect loan ceilings, the acceptance of guarantors instead of collateral, and extension to the repayment periods. In total, these are very significant institutional changes and have opened the way for collateral free lending and facilitated an increased flow of credit for IGAs. In addition, these policy changes demonstrate a de facto recognition by the Government of the poverty situation in the rural areas. This should pave the way to a more comprehensive understanding of the causes, effects and distribution of poverty.

Policy impact

From the two preceding paragraphs, it can be seen that the present portfolio has affected the approach to some development activities of both MAAR and CAB. As a result, the design of BRDP was able to be far more participatory than that of the earlier projects. In addition, with the establishment of the new Gender and Development Division in MAAR, which is intended to mainstream gender issues,¹⁰ an overall shift in the acknowledgement of and approach to poverty alleviation in rural areas is emerging. The present portfolio can fairly claim to have had an impact in influencing this evolution of policy in MAAR. This is an aspect that has to be built upon in the new generation of projects.

Targeting the poor

In the present portfolio there have been progressively stronger attempts to reach the poor. In the earlier projects, targeting was heavily influenced by technical criteria for the selection of land for de-rocking, which overshadowed the selection of farmers on the basis of poverty. In the newer projects, area assessments are being used for selection based on estimated levels of income and other social indicators. In the design of these later projects, more attention is also given to mechanisms for achieving community participation (especially in BRDP).

Overall, there is now a better understanding of realistic methods of targeting, and project efforts have been rewarded by a greater acceptance of the need to direct benefits to the poor and involve them in all stages of the development process. The need is to build on this process, first, by obtaining a deeper understanding of the nature, causes and effects of poverty at the community and household levels, and second, by promoting grass-roots initiatives that can respond to poverty interventions.

Beneficiary participation

While examples of beneficiary participation do exist, so far they are very limited, and there is no established role for beneficiaries as yet. Apart from the experience with the politically associated trade unions (GUP/GUW), which are avenues for implementing government policy, group formation in Syria is in its infancy. Experience in the formation of groups for economic enterprises is especially lacking. Despite this, the implementation environment now seems to be more conducive to beneficiary groups and the definition of much greater participation for these groups in development activities. The present portfolio has played a role in this process. The Government is now ready to accept the principle of beneficiary participation stemming from self-motivated specific interest groups, such as credit or de-rocking, provided these groups still link to the existing institutions, e.g., CAB and GUP, for service provision. A number of donors have been experimenting with the group approach, with promising results (paragraph 79-82).

Gender issues

During CPE field visits, it was clear that the impact of project lending had helped to develop entrepreneurial skills among rural women, and to enhance their economic status and their role in family decision-making. The most notable impact was for those women who were undertaking IGAs based on livestock. More might have been achieved if marketing information and business opportunities had been made available, if training had been directed more to remunerative IGAs and small project management skills and if savings had been promoted. Poorer women could have benefited more if the provision of working capital to cover operational expenses had been included in credit delivery. Although the relaxation of collateral to two guarantors has improved the situation, it is still a major obstacle for the poorest groups.

VI. Sustainability of benefits

The CPE identified a number of issues that raise concerns relating to sustainability of benefits. For the poorer target groups, the continuation of the flow of benefits for a reasonable time is a pre-requisite to lifting them out of the poverty trap. There is therefore a need for sustainability issues to be addressed during the preparation of exit strategies for each of the projects; the sooner these are addressed the more secure will be the outcome.

Land and crop development

Apart from the environmental considerations that could affect de-rocked areas, sustainability implies the preservation of soil fertility through good soil and crop practices, including crop rotations, and a good enterprise mix. Farmers need to be made aware that the intensification of their existing farming practices that is made possible with de-rocking could lead to increased risks from pests and diseases. There is a need to promote mixed farming practices, including adequate crop rotations, to counter this risk. It is also desirable that small farmers, particularly given the high risk involved in rainfed farming, make their businesses more robust by spreading the sources of their farm incomes, thus making their farms less susceptible to crop failures and price fluctuations.

Livestock

For the present projects centred on de-rocking, sustainability of livestock activities will depend on the integration of fodder crops into the settled farming systems. At the moment, inadequate quantities of animal feed are being produced. An incentive/price framework and appropriate input delivery mechanisms are required to encourage production. For the Badia, not only do feed resources need to be improved but also herders need to have adequate access to this feed. Balancing access to resources with livestock numbers is the key to sustainability. For herders, this means establishing a network of user rights, so that conflicts are avoided and resources are not overused. Such systems rely on local agreements between individuals and groups, which evolve into traditions. BRDP needs to explore how such mechanisms can be developed.

Water resource development

Project designs in the present portfolio have considered only narrowly the development of water resources, and have not considered the overall strategic nature of water in Syria. To sustain any type of agricultural development, Syria has no option but to optimize the use of scarce water resources. Increasing the efficiency in water application in ASZs 1, 2, 3 and 4 is essential if production is to continue increasing. It would be prudent to consider ranking crops on the basis of units of water used per unit of output, so that more water-efficient crops could be promoted. For environmental sustainability in the Badia, establishment of permanent water points needs to be carefully investigated and absolutely linked with the availability of fodder resources - all within an adequate natural resource management plan.

Income-generating activities

Not all activities promoted as income-generating are profitable: project objectives are undermined when activities do not clearly have the purpose of increasing household incomes, and hence helping to alleviate poverty. For sustainability, more assistance is required to enable beneficiaries to make informed choices in the identification of their preferred IGAs, combined with their having a better understanding of the business skills required.

Rural credit

There are three aspects in the rural credit programme that need to be considered to improve sustainability. The first is the declining repayment rate, which in 1998 was just 75%. (CAB staff suggested that this was a factor of the then current drought.) Such high default rates limit the potential expansion of the credit programme and erode CAB's institutional capacity. The second aspect of the rural credit programme that needs to be considered is that CAB personnel, and not project extension staff exclusively, need to be involved in the collection, scrutiny and appraisal of loan applications and post-credit supervision of loans. This is essential for ensuring that CAB is committed to the timely recovery of loans and is able to continue credit provision after the closure of the project. The third factor for sustainability is that principal repayments of project loans need to be recycled through a revolving fund. This is to ensure that loans are available under the same terms and conditions agreed upon for project lending, at least until all investments necessary for achieving the project-generated benefits have been made.

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8/ Mid-term evaluation of SRADP-II.

9/ Mid-term evaluation of SRADP-II, 1998.

10/ UNDP is also to assist the Government in the development of a poverty alleviation strategy.