It is an honor to address this esteemed governing council – ministers, leaders and agricultural and food security experts from around the world.

We are gathered here in Rome at a critical moment in history – a moment when three converging crises – food, fuel and financial have forced us to ask the most basic of questions. Can we ensure basic food security?  Can we be sure enough food will be produced and that the world’s population will be able to access adequate food for survival? 

Despite heroic efforts by many to meet emergency hunger and seed and fertilizer needs, we know hunger is on the march, with an additional 115 million added to the ranks of the hungry. Today, nearly one billion, or one in seven people go to bed hungry.

As we gather, in addition to honoring a great and beloved leader in the battle for global food security, Lennart Båge – I would like to make three points:

• Food security is now one of the top peace and security issues of our time. 
• We can – and must – win the battle against hunger and for global food security.  We can do this. 
• This challenge is bigger than any one nation or one institution – we must act together or fall together.

Point one: we are not out of the woods, and destabilization of food access is a matter of global stability.  No one can predict the length or depth of the current economic crisis. But history teaches us two things.

First, the world’s poorest will be the hardest hit. And second, we are all in this together and we ignore the call of hunger at our own peril.

As the global situation has worsened over the last year many have compared it to the dark days of the Great Depression.  Banks closing, unemployment rising, and millions of families driven into desperate poverty and hunger– in nation after nation.

At that time, almost a century ago, nations chose to draw inward, withdrawing from the global community, establishing isolationist policies that fuelled the growing Depression.  This fostered a decade of political instability and rising dictatorships.

In the years after 1929 the world was plunged into war and millions of lives were lost.  After the food crisis in 1974, many governments were toppled as rising hunger fuelled popular discontent.  During last year’s food price crisis there were food riots in more than 30 countries.  Last year, many were driven to hunger as food prices soared beyond their reach. This year, many are being driven to hunger as their family incomes rapidly decline or disappear. 

Hunger and food insecurity must no longer be the exclusive purview of humanitarians, technical experts and do-gooders – this challenge is, once again, about global peace and security, and about the stability of nations.
Just days ago, U.S. President Barack Obama’s new Director of National Intelligence, retired Admiral Dennis Blair, told the United States Senate that the economic crisis, not terrorism or nuclear proliferation, now tops the list of U.S. security concerns. 

He said: "Roughly, a quarter of the countries in the world have already experienced low-level instabilities such as government changes because of the current slowdown."  And, he said that the “primary near-term security concern of the United States is the global economic crisis and its geopolitical implications."

As outlined by former USAID Administrator Andrew Natsios in a new paper entitled “The Coming Food Coups,” “Though it is unlikely that famine will sweep across the globe, causing revolution, upheaval, and mass starvation, the consequences of the increase in food prices since 2004 could still be dire if prices continue to increase and a severe worldwide recession drastically reduces family income in developing countries.”

In a world even more interconnected than the 1930s we need to resist isolationist tendencies, and an “every nation for itself” environment.
Providing for your own nation is not an irrational action after last year’s food crisis. Not only were key staple prices beyond the reach of the poor, but even nations with money were unable to purchase commodities with stocks at historic lows.

Unfortunately all signs points to the fact that last year’s food crisis is far from over. A new study from Chatham House released last month warns of the coming “global food crunch.” The long-term drivers of high prices such as climate change, lack of investment in agriculture and fuel production as well as rising rates of food consumption will continue.

Though down from last year’s highs, prices remain at historically high levels.  Global cereal prices are 71 percent higher than they were in 2005 and 7.5 percent higher than in 2007, according to the IMF’s latest figures.  And local market prices in many countries, driven by short supply, continue to ramp up.  For example, maize prices in Malawi are up over 100 percent year on year, and 45 percent higher in Benin. 

Philippines' Agricultural Secretary, Arthur Yap, in a statement for the high-level meeting on Food Security For All in Madrid, raised the alarm that stock-to-use ratios are at 30 year lows. He called this the calm before the storm, urging measures such as calling on WFP to consider emergency food stocks for nations, to instill a level of certainty and stability.

As Prime Minister Zapatero pointed out in Madrid, the financial crisis is compounding the plight of the hungry as family incomes are cut, further marginalizing those who live on less than a dollar or two a day.

At WFP there are five factors we are watching to indicate how the financial crisis may affect hunger among the most vulnerable. The first is dependence on remittances. As the global economy slows so can remittances sent home.  This is already hitting hard.  For example, it is estimated that in 2008, 19% of the Kyrgyz Republic’s GDP was made up of remittances. That is a lower rate than in 2007 and it could fall further in 2009. The slowdown has thrown 600,000 into urgent hunger. The government has requested WFP to come back for the first time since 1992.

Remittances are a vital part of economies throughout the world. Haiti has an average of 20 percent, and a number of Central American countries have an average of 25 percent of GDP dependent on remittances.  Africa receives nearly $20 billion in remittances.

The second factor we are looking at is export dependence. Last year vulnerability was caused by food import dependence. In this time of economic difficulty, dependence on exports is creating a new kind of vulnerability. As exports slow so do incomes in poor countries. The IMF estimates that sub-Saharan Africa exports will decline by half in 2009, cutting off a vital source of employment, income and foreign capital.

The third factor is growing unemployment and poverty rates which threaten to push more of the working poor into the ranks of the hungry poor. The ILO estimates that the number of unemployed may rise by 50 million this year. 

The fourth factor is declining investment and access to credit. In an editorial this month entitled "Barter Beware", the Financial Times warns that many nations are entering into a "secret web of barter deals as a substitute for global commodity markets" because financing for the international food trade is drying up or becoming too expensive. Some report they cannot get lines of credit to buy food for their nations.

The fifth area concerns access to adequate supplies. We are beginning again to see nations shutting down food exports as many have just done in West Africa to ward off food inflation and protect supply. Others are importing more and many are trying to rebuild depleted stocks; there is again the specter of hoarding. Once again we must ask ourselves if we are witnessing a fundamental breakdown in some aspects of the global food markets where nations cannot be sure that they can secure enough supply or the access to credit to fund the purchases they need.

To address these critical challenges requires the highest level attention from presidents, prime ministers, kings, queens, the Secretary‑General of the United Nations, the High Level Task Force, Vice-Chaired by FAO, and all of you. The G8 hosted by Italy this year, the G20 and others must and are planning to keep food security high on their agenda.

But we must not despair.  This is a battle that is winnable.  Between 1969 and 2004 we cut the proportion of hunger by half.  Nations who emerged from poverty during this time include China, Brazil, Ghana, Malawi, Thailand and many others.  This follows a path of success set just a few generations ago by Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Japan and others. 

In fact we have every reason to be encouraged by our joint efforts last year which proved our effectiveness when nations, agencies, NGOs and the private sector cooperated to meet an unprecedented challenge. Last year, thanks to the enormous generosity of many nations, WFP ramped up to reach 100 million people in need, helping more than 80 nations cool down food instability and helping prevent massive suffering. 

This was the quickest and largest emergency scale-up in history.  We lost 14 people in the line of duty, ships were attacked by pirates, as were our truck convoys and drivers.  But nothing got in the way of WFP and a hungry child. 

These efforts, complemented the scientific and long-term efforts by FAO, IFAD, CGIAR, the World Bank and others.  I thank nations for helping ensure we are more effective.  President Obama has made clear hunger and security are high on his agenda, as America funds 40 percent of emergency action.  Many nations gave two or three times the amount they gave previously. 

And this is not your grandmother’s food aid – with the leadership of Belgium, Canada, the European Commission, the Nordic Nations, AGRA, the Gates Foundation and the Howard Buffett Foundation we launched Purchasing for Progress, or P4P. Today WFP buys 80 percent of its food from developing nations – and a quarter of that figure in southern Africa – helping break the cycle of hunger at its root.  This is designed to support the AU and national efforts at food independence.

WFP, IFAD and FAO have just launched P4P with the government of Mozambique to ensure the farmers we purchase from are getting better seeds and fertilizer.  One Mozambique farmer, Alfredo, used the money he earned through P4P to purchase school supplies for his children, clothes for his family, and tools.  He is also planning to grow more than five times the amount of cowpeas this year, knowing he has a buyer.  He told one of our staff members: “Now that there is a secure buyer, I will produce a lot more.”

In fact, WFP and IFAD have worked for more than three decades, along with FAO, to solve problems together.  Today we are working together on 18 projects in 14 countries, the majority of which are in Africa and Asia. The strategy has been to combine WFP food and nutrition assistance with IFAD’s financing to comprehensively address rural hunger and poverty. Through food-for-work, food-for-training and micro credit programs we are building resiliency and self-sufficiency.

I can’t end my comments without offering a tribute to Lennart Båge and the significant legacy that he leaves after his eight year tenure. I met Lennart when Kofi Annan appointed us both to the High-Level Panel on UN Coherence.  It was clear then that he is driven by a heart-felt desire for a UN that effectively combats poverty and hunger, and promotes self-sufficiency for the world’s most vulnerable.

He comes from a country that three generations ago had significant poverty and malnutrition, he exemplifies Sweden’s can-do outlook, matched with incredible generosity.  As President of IFAD, he has put that commitment into action.  Lennart’s leadership can be described by four D’s:

• Dedication
• Decency
• Determination
• Drive

These four D’s have helped Lennart lead IFAD to become an even more effective agency.  One of the hallmarks of his time at IFAD includes successfully increasing the effectiveness, efficiency and relevance of IFAD.  Lennart has also been a leader here in Rome, building bridges between donor nations, other UN agencies, and those we serve in the field.

This collaboration helps deliver on a UN-wide twin track approach to food security: 1. Direct, immediate action to provide access to nutritious food. 2. Longer-term agricultural development to eliminate the root causes of hunger.

They say that when you leave a position, your work continues on through your greatest admirers.  I am one, and the WFP stands ready to build on Lennart’s accomplishments to help reduce poverty and hunger.

A big part of that legacy is the understanding that no person, no agency or no nation can do this alone.  We must all work together to ensure as we focus on Wall Street and Main Street, that we do not forget the places with no streets. 

Obama intelligence chief Dennis Blair said that among the most immediate impact of the economic crisis will be nations not being able to fully meet their humanitarian obligations. 

We cannot let that happen.  We must stay the course.

Let history remember that at a time of unprecedented challenge the world did not withdraw, but stood together for the most vulnerable. 

Thank you.

Rome, 18 February 2009