Achieving the UN MDG1 related to hunger and poverty in an era of climate change

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Thank you all for coming to today’s lecture, and a special thanks to Professor M.S. Swaminathan for inviting me to deliver this Millennium Lecture.

I am particularly happy to be here, in a part of the world where I spent a decade working with the research and development community on ways of adapting agricultural systems to changes in temperature and precipitation; a phenomenon known today as climate change.

This is an opportune moment to address this theme - on the eve of the Copenhagen COP 15 meeting - a milestone global platform at which the international community is expected to reaffirm the role and importance of agriculture – in particular smallholder agriculture – in adapting to and contributing to mitigating the impact of Climate Change.

With just 6 years to go, achieving MDG1 which addresses hunger and extreme poverty is being threatened by the multiple crises that have shaken the world. While progress was being achieved in some parts of the world, agricultural prices on the international market were increasing, global food stocks were falling, and many countries were lagging behind in their respective progress towards the MDG targets.

At the same time, the effects of climate change are increasingly being felt, threatening the livelihoods of millions, in particular poor rural people in developing countries.

Climate change is one of the most serious threats the world faces.  It will affect all of us, but will have a disproportionately harsh impact on millions of poor rural people in developing countries.

I am honoured to have this opportunity to share with you my thoughts on this critical topic and to have a chance to hear your views as well.

Lessons from the recent food crisis

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Twenty-five years ago, Ethiopia was hit by one of the worst famines in living memory. The world was shaken by horrific images – in newspapers and on television screens – of people who were literally wasting away. Ethiopia, as you may know, depends almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture to feed itself.

Today, the rains have once again failed in large parts of Ethiopia. Once more, millions of Ethiopians face the prospect of famine.

This time, however, the threat is not confined to Ethiopia. Large parts of the Horn of Africa and parts of Kenya are also affected by the failure of the rains, which reportedly have become more frequent. International aid agencies, including our sister agency in Rome – the World Food Program (WFP) – are again appealing for massive amounts of food aid to stave off another famine.

The current crisis in the Horn of Africa is a stark reminder to all of us that the global food security crisis we witnessed in 2007 and 2008 is far from over. It also underscores the devastating impact that changes in climate – in this case the failure of rain – can have on poverty and hunger.

In coming years, this is expected to be a particular problem for Africa. Indeed, the International Panel for Climate Changes has estimated that rainfed crop yields in some countries could drop by 50 per cent by 2020.

As we contemplate the actions we need to take to reduce poverty and hunger in an era of climate change, I believe it is worthwhile to step back for a moment and ask: What major lessons did we learn from the 2007/2008 global food crisis? Clearly, it is essential that we draw the right lessons if we are to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.

History has now taught us that food security is an integral part of overall security, at both national and global levels as witnessed during the 2007-2008 food price crisis which led to riots in about 40 countries and the fall of the government in Haiti.

Today, it is estimated that more than one billion people – about a sixth of the world’s population – cannot afford to buy food and therefore suffer from chronic hunger. Many more many will fall into this trap if little to nothing is done. Hunger and poverty are inhuman and should not be tolerated.

Ensuring global food security is a challenge that we should all stand ready to respond to, individually and collectively. As demand for food is projected to increase by 50 percent over the next 20 years, agricultural growth remains the only solution to prosperity. The 2007-2008 food price crisis is an illustration of the type of disturbances that we may experience more often in the future.

The world can ill afford the under-investment in agriculture as experienced in the past two decades. While the food crisis was exacerbated by short-term developments -- such as crop failures in major cereal producing countries -- it was fundamentally a reflection of the failure of world supply to keep pace with growing demand, largely due to declining or stagnant agricultural productivity in developing countries. This reminds us that food security requires consistent sustained investment in agriculture.

The global economic crisis has aggravated the situation by affecting jobs and deepening poverty. Global food insecurity can no longer be tackled by food aid alone -- as important as such aid is in crisis conditions -- but by helping developing countries increase their production of food. For most, this translates into increased production by smallholder farmers.

While increased food production is necessary, it is not sufficient to avert food crises.  Food security requires distribution mechanisms that enable equal access to food for all people. It is not enough to increase production and productivity; farmers should be linked to markets -- not necessarily international markets but the last mile to vibrant and competitive local markets.

While smallholder farmers need to increase their production to enhance national food security, governments have to create the environment to enable them to do so. The crisis has shown that smallholder farmers often find it difficult to respond to sharp increases in demand and higher food prices in the absence of supporting institutions and appropriate infrastructure.

Developing country governments must create the political will and the right policy environment for development.

Climate change threatens to slow down and even reverse progress achieved over the past decade.  New threats are emerging in the shape of conflicts resulting from water and food insecurity, precipitous fall in per capita agricultural production, food supply and access, with significant impact on nutrition and public health.

The trends witnessed in the past two decades are reversible as our failure thus far is largely a consequence of our own action – or inaction. As such, it is within our power to fix it. There are signs of hope.

Prospects for poverty and hunger reduction in the face of current trends and climate change

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I believe the future of food security and poverty reduction is highly dependent on the degree to which the public and private sectors will succeed in increasing agricultural productivity through technological change and effective natural resource management.

Indeed, as you well know it was the efforts of public and private sector, working hand-in-hand, that helped make such a big dent in poverty reduction in India.  

We need to remember, in this regard, that research is the driver of technological change and that it requires investment in pro-poor agricultural research, science, and technology.

The Indian NARS is a strong contributor to the knowledge base within the global agricultural research system. This includes important contributions from other Centres of Excellence such as the MSSRF.

The scale of the challenge is reflected in current projections for population growth and the resultant growth in the demand for food. The world’s population is projected to grow from 6.8 billion to 9.1 billion by 2050. Most of the growth is expected to take place in developing countries. Feeding 9.1 billion will require that overall global food production increase by 70 percent. Production in the developing countries would need to almost double.

A related challenge is the expected adverse impact of climate change on raising agricultural production and productivity, particularly on rain-fed agriculture.

Recent studies and projections paint a dire picture, particularly for Africa. Let me cite a few of these projections:

In sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Asia and South Asia, climate change is expected to affect rains, increase the frequency of droughts and raise average temperatures threatening the availability of fresh water for agricultural production;

In sub-Saharan Africa, arid and semi-arid areas are projected to increase by 60-90 million hectares; and

In parts of Southern Africa, yields from rain-fed agriculture are expected to be reduced up to 50 percent for some crops by 2020.

The combined effect of climate change on agriculture is therefore likely to be a loss of stability in production and decline in food production. Unless urgent action is taken, climate change is likely to worsen global food security and dramatically increase the number of people facing hunger and malnutrition.

Climate change will clearly make it more difficult to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The key to meeting the first Millennium Development Goal in this era of climate change will be to implement a new Green Revolution that is environmentally sustainable and responds to the needs of the 2 billion people who live and work on small farmers in developing countries. Smallholder agriculture must be at the heart of this revolution because most are struggling to live on less than US$2 a day, because supporting smallholders can enhance world food security and make a significant dent in poverty.

Leaving them out of the equation will push many into greater poverty and hunger. Poor rural people are the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Many live on ecologically fragile land and depend on agriculture, livestock, fisheries and forestry. Most lack the institutional and financial capacity to withstand the impact of climate change.

I don’t think I need to remind you how effective a Green Revolution can be, since the father of India’s Green Revolution – Professor M.S. Swaminathan – is sitting here today.

In the years since Asia’s first, very successful, Green Revolution, it has become clear that agricultural growth must look beyond the demands of the present to meet the needs of future generations. It has also become clear that a new Green Revolution must be flexible and suitable to local conditions.

In particular, the impact of climate change on agriculture – as well as agriculture’s impact on the environment – must be considered. It is a sobering fact that agriculture and deforestation together account for an estimated 26 to 35 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions.

A new Green Revolution will need to be more innovative and knowledge intensive than the one that went before. Agricultural research for development has already become increasingly focused on promoting environmentally sustainable systems and on improving the integrated management of crop, livestock and natural resource systems – while at the same time maintaining biodiversity.

Indeed, agriculture and forestry can play a key role in tackling climate change. Afforestation and reforestation, better land management practices, rehabilitation of degraded crop and pasture land and better livestock management practices can all contribute significantly to reducing carbon emissions.

Poor rural people manage vast areas of land and forest. With support, smallholder farmers have the potential to provide a wide range of environmental services that contribute to carbon sequestration and limit carbon emissions. These include planting and maintaining forests, engaging in agro-forestry activities, managing rangelands and rice lands, as well as watershed protection that limits deforestation and soil erosion.

Needed Actions

Ladies and Gentlemen,

International Support

Comprehensive and holistic actions are needed to address the underlying causes of hunger and poverty in the era of climate change.

As I said earlier, we must improve production and productivity through yield increases, improved market linkages, innovative and improved technologies and improved management of natural resources.

We must expand markets and enhance trade by creating surpluses that will contribute to higher farm incomes through improved market infrastructure at the local, regional and international levels. South-South cooperation and regional integration should be promoted and enhanced to create conducive niche markets.

We need to harness pro-poor agricultural research without which agricultural productivity may remain abysmally low in developing countries, particularly in Africa. Innovative and climate proof solutions should be developed to assist resource poor farmers.

Women are key contributors to agricultural labour and production. Particular attention should be paid to women issues in agriculture in order to increase productivity, and their access to land and financial services, thereby enhancing their livelihoods and that of their families.

While the prospects for meeting the first Millennium Development Goal, on current trends, are not promising, I believe there are grounds for optimism. The world can make huge progress in reducing poverty and hunger if governments, the private sector, and civil society organizations take the required steps. These must aim, first, to increase agricultural productivity and second, to tackle climate change. Such action is required at both the international and national levels.

At the international level, I believe we have begun to take important steps to lay the groundwork to support low-income countries boost their agricultural productivity and increase their agricultural production.

At the height of the crisis in 2008, the United Nations Secretary General established the High-Level Task Force (HLTF) on food security to coordinate the work of the United Nations Agencies, including the Bretton Woods institutions. The HLTF has produced a Comprehensive Plan of Action and has also helped coordinate the responses of the many organizations taking part.

Other important recent initiatives include the European Union’s Euro 1 billion facility, to support agricultural projects in developing countries, and the African Agriculture Fund, recently launched by France and the African Development Bank. The latter aims to strengthen agricultural management, modernization and organization on the continent by supporting agro-industrial companies and agricultural cooperatives.

An important milestone in the last few months has undoubtedly been the agreement reached by the heads of 40 governments and agencies at the G8 Summit this year on the L’Aquila Food Security Initiative. The leaders pledged US$20 billion over the next three years to strengthen global food production and food security.

The Initiative recognizes that global food security crucially depends on agricultural development in developing countries, rather than simply on aid. It also lays down a number of fundamental principles to support efforts at increasing agriculture production. Above all, it has stated that all efforts must be country-owned and country-led.

National Efforts

It is good to see that developing countries are beginning to take the needed steps to increase agricultural production and productivity.

India, of course, has made huge strides towards modernizing its agriculture and assuring food security for its people. It has been joined by others, notably Brazil, China, and Vietnam. Indeed, they have become major food exporters. In Africa, countries such as Ghana, Rwanda and Tanzania look set to follow a similar trajectory.

In Africa, while governments face enormous challenges, they nonetheless have taken some encouraging steps. In 2003, governments pledged to raise investment in agriculture to at least 10 per cent of national budgets. And while all countries have yet to meet this target, a significant number have, despite the severe fiscal crisis many have faced in the recent past. Agriculture is the foundation of economic growth national stability and improved livelihoods and social wealth.

Importantly, a number of countries in Africa have adopted the NEPAD Comprehensive Agricultural Development Program (CAADEP) as the basis for their own national programs. And in such plans, it is also our hope that countries will give high priority to smallholder agriculture, as this sector must inevitably play a critical role in all efforts to improve food security in Africa.

I would like to point out that women farmers make up 60-70 percent of smallholders in the developing world. Empowering women farmers and women’s groups is central to agricultural development.

It is our hope that the L’Aquila Initiative together with such national initiatives will indeed result in a major boost of investments to the agricultural sector reversing the unfortunate trends we have witnessed in the last three decades.

As many of you may know, Official Development Assistance to agriculture declined from 19 per cent in the 1980 to 2.5 per cent in 2006. The share of national government budgets devoted to agriculture also declined to less than 10 percent, falling to less than 5 percent in some. Investment in agricultural research must also increase: average global expenditure on agricultural research as a percentage of agricultural GDP is only 1 per cent.

It is also our hope that the new cooperation to boost agricultural production and productivity in the developing world will indeed lead to greater mutual accountability between the donor community and developing countries.

Tackling Climate Change

While important initiatives are being laid to boost agricultural production and productivity, these must necessarily be complemented by concrete steps to limit climate change if the goals of ensuring global food security are to be met. In this regard, it is our hope that the Copenhagen negotiators will indeed - seal a credible climate deal - one which delivers cuts in emissions and which recognizes the uniqueness of agriculture.

In this regard, it is important to remember that smallholder farmers in developing countries are at the sharp edge of climate change and they are the least equipped to cope. This is particularly the case for rural women, who often shoulder the main responsibility in providing for the food, water and fuel needs of their families.

Smallholder men and women would thus need to be provided with the means to adapt to climate change. They need seeds that are more resistant to drought or to floods and they need cutting-edge agricultural technologies. They need microfinance services to allow them to invest in the future and to help tide them over in the lean times; and they need weather-indexed insurance to protect them from the shocks of climate change.

Conclusion: IFAD, Smallholder Agriculture and Climate Change

Ladies and Gentlemen

Before I conclude, permit me to say a few words on the work of IFAD in support of the efforts of low-income countries to reduce poverty and hunger while coping with the effects of climate change.

The decision to create IFAD was made in 1974 in the wake of the great droughts and famines that had struck Africa and Asia in the preceding years. IFAD works mainly in marginal, rainfed areas that are at risk for water shortages, land degradation and desertification. This is why adaptation to climate variability and strengthening resilience to environmental stress has always been part of IFAD’s work.

During this time we have learnt that investment in smallholder agriculture and rural development is the most sustainable safety net for economic growth. In the world’s 50 least developed countries, agriculture is the backbone of the economy, accounting for as much as 60 per cent of GDP.  Smallholders farm 80 per cent of the farmland Africa and Asia.

We believe that in the current effort to increase international support to agriculture, the lessons learnt from IFAD projects can be immensely useful in the design of effective programmes and projects. Indeed, we believe that IFAD projects can, in many instances, be scaled up to significantly boost agricultural production and mitigate the impact of climate change.

Successful examples of IFAD-supported poverty reduction and environmental management projects include:

The Market Strengthening and Livelihood Diversification in the Southern Highlands Project in Peru, which is working with more than 21,000 families living in the high Andean plateau to become more resilient to the impact of climate change and to improve their management of natural resources. Project participants are diversifying their crops and using stone walls to break the wind and trap soil and water to prevent run-off. As a result of the project, the local population is better fed and livestock are thriving; and

The West Guangxi Poverty-Alleviation Project in China which has provided 30,000 poor households with nearly 23,000 biodigester tanks for biogas production in 3,100 villages, resulting in a significant drop in methane emissions and in improved household sanitation and health along with increases in income.

Climate change is a global environmental challenge. Helping poor rural people adapt to the impact of  climate change and enabling them to contribute to mitigation requires a coordinated approach from the international community, other partners in development, and perhaps most importantly, developing countries themselves.

To this end, at COP15, IFAD is organizing a one-day event to discuss the important role of agriculture in any agreements that come out of the meeting. We are honoured that Professor Swaminathan will join our delegation and participate in the IFAD-sponsored roundtable, further strengthening our voice in the deliberations.

We should always remember that development and economic growth are intrinsic national processes: A palm tree cannot make use of energy from the sun unless it is well-grounded and firmly rooted in its own soil.

I thank you for your attention.

India, 28 November, 2009