Main findings and conclusions

Evaluation purpose and scope

This is the second Country Portfolio Evaluation (CPE) undertaken by the Fund. Its purpose is to contribute to better project design and implementation building on the substantial amount of experience accumulated by the Fund in The Sudan.

To this effect, the CPE endeavoured to provide solid comparative information on the most essential aspects of project performance and their relevance to IFAD's concerns. Since the CPE is oriented towards drawing general lessons of experience, it does not attempt to pinpoint problems in any specific project, nor does it pretend to substitute proper evaluations of single projects.

In spite of the vast areas involved, the evaluation mission visited six of the eight projects supported by the Fund.^/ The Southern Region Agriculture Project (SRAP) was not visited for security reasons, nor was the Southern Roseires Agricultural Development Project (SRADP) since it had become effective only two months earlier and thus its field activities had not yet commenced.

The evaluation report consists of ten chapters grouped under three general sections, viz., programme features and delivery, main results by major field of intervention and policy implications for IFAD. The first section provides an overview of the IFAD country programme since its inception, putting it into perspective with the evolution of the national context (Chapters II and III). Chapter IV concludes this section by analysing project implementation performance in relation to organizational structures and the institutional framework.

The second part of the report (Chapters V to VIII) presents the results of detailed field investigations of irrigation and rural water supply rehabilitation and development, research and extension and agricultural credit, the major fields of IFAD's intervention in the country.

On the basis of the above, the last section of the report discusses the specific issue of the impact of beneficiaries' participation patterns on project performance (Chapter IX). Conclusions are drawn on the determinants of beneficiaries' participation and on how projects can promote it in practical terms. This discussion forms the cornerstone of the evaluation's recommendations covering the various fields of activities (Chapter X).

The portfolio

IFAD has supported eight projects in The Sudan, seven of which are cofinanced. The total cost of the projects is equivalent to USD 330 million, IFAD's share amounting to USD 85 million or 26%. IFAD's contribution to interventions in rainfed agriculture and livestock amounted to 60%, compared to 40% for irrigated agriculture (not taking into account the White Nile Agricultural Services project, approved after this evaluation took place).

To a large extent, the programme has been shaped by successive shifts in the Government of The Sudan's policies and priorities. As the programme gained some degree of autonomy and specificity it also gave more importance to rainfed agriculture as from the second half of the 1980s. At the same time, the average project size decreased markedly.

Implementation effectiveness

The projects have been designed and implemented against a general country background of continuing economic decline which has been further exacerbated by the recurrence of droughts, food shortages, famines and civil war. This has resulted in widespread poverty compounded by a general collapse in the public services which were expected to host the projects. Not surprisingly, project implementation faced considerable delays and projects were thus frequently extended. Project duration varied between 5.4 and 8.6 years. Loan disbursement profiles show that the pace of implementation has slowed over time.

A summary of project performance by major field of activity is presented in the following sections and includes: irrigagation rehabilitation, drinking water supply, technology development and dissemination, and rural credit.

 i) Irrigation Rehabilitation

The rehabilitation works as well as the supply of spare parts, fuel, and equipment have kept public schemes operational, albeit at a low level of efficiency. Without rehabilitation, a number of farmers who would not have been in a position to shift to individual systems of irrigation would have been compelled to give up farming for lack of irrigation water.

Although private farmers will continue to face problems related to shortages of spare parts, private irrigated farms are more sustainable than the public schemes, particularly farms pumping water directly from rivers. However, in some areas, particularly in the upper terraces of the Nile, because of increasing salinity and a drop in the level of the water table, the farmers are in a less sustainable situation.

In public schemes, cost recovery has not been achieved in spite of the recent hefty increases in water rates. Water charges have been underestimated and collection rates are low. As a result neither Northern Agricultural Production Corporation nor New Halfa Agricultural Production Corporation (the parastatals in charge of irrigation water supply that have been supported under IFAD loans) is financially self-sustaining.

Inadequate maintenance contributes to the poor performance of public schemes. The deterioration of the existing distribution systems and pumping equipment results in water shortages and thus in low yields and outputs. As a result, the rehabilitation effect has generally been short-lived.

 ii) Drinking Water Supply

In South Darfur, the implementation of the drinking water infrastructure rehabilitation programme has been satisisfactory (85% of target wateryards rehabilitated and 71% of water tanks replaced). However, the overall wateryard system efficiency, including rehabilitated and non-rehabilitated wateryards, remains fairly low.

Although the population's participation was sought, it was poorly organized and the involvement of village committees in the management of wateryards has been inadequate. While it is not likely that drinking water supply can be turned into an entirely self-sustained business, this indeed makes it all the more important to improve the cost-effectiveness of drinking water supplies.

 iii) Technology Development and Dissemination

There is no conclusive evidence that IFAD's attempts at promoting adaptive research have yielded any specific dividends, due to the following factors:

- the lack of a comprehensive analysis of farrs' needs and constraints led to the formulation of research and extension programmes that were too ambitious;

- the project designs did not adequately match programmes to the resources available and did not take fully into account the difficult living and operating conditions in the areas;

- inability to supply effective, long-term leadership ; and

- component design was sometimes loose in that it left the design of the programme to implementing agencies.

 iv) Rural Credit

Credit has been almost exclusively concerned with on-farm activities. There has been a marked improvement in the design of credit components from Southern Region Agricultural Project through Northern Region Agricultural Rehabilitation Project to En Nahud Cooperative Credit Project and Southern Roseires Agricultural Development Project. Rural and cooperative credit institutions could be developed to an operational level.

The most recent projects have made serious efforts to reach the target groups and provide workable alternatives to collateral security. Increased access to credit for small farmers was achieved through both expansion of the geographical coverage of the Agricultural Bank of Sudan's activities (new branches), and a relaxation of lending conditions and collateral requirements (introduction of joint liability as an alternative to individual collateral security). Credit for women who are heads of households and women in general has also been pioneered by second generation projects, but women received a limited share of the total credit disbursed to date. While social constraints are often cited by outsiders as a major explanatory factor, it is the mission's opinion that the constraints that actually hamper a greater participation of women in credit programmes remain to be identified through specific field investigations.

Given the high inflation rate prevailing in the country, the high cost of administering loans to small farmers (particularly in rainfed areas), the frequent crop failures and the subsequent low recovery rates, sustainability emerges as a very pressing issue.

 Contribution to poverty alleviation and food security

It is not possible to provide a global estimate of the total number of direct beneficiaries reached by IFAD-supported projects, as only four projects have been closed, of which one project, located in war affected areas, could not be examined. Nevertheless, on a sample of three projects which lend themselves to such analysis^/, it was found that about 130 000 families or close to one million^/ persons, have directly benefited, of which 80 000 (about 600 000 people) live in the rainfed areas.

The situation shows a contrast between the rainfed and irrigated project areas. In irrigated areas, the projects reached a large share of the target population but a relatively small number of households at an estimated average cost of USD 430^/ per direct beneficiary (or USD 3 000 per family). In rainfed areas, only a marginal proportion of the target population was directly exposed to the project, but the projects actually reached a larger number of households and at a very modest unit cost of about USD 80 (or USD 560 per family). Across the whole portfolio, total project expenditures by actual direct beneficiary averaged about USD 200.

Thanks to their focus on productive activities, most projects have had a positive impact on the direct beneficiaries. Despite their inability to trigger a sustainable path of development, the projects which have been completed or nearly completed were useful in providing critical rehabilitation-cum-medium-term assistance to needy populations, mainly through lifting the foreign exchange constraint on the import of agricultural inputs and equipment. This had a positive impact on production and incomes of the direct beneficiaries and, as has been acknowledged, slowed down the concerned regions' economic decline.

The projects' logistical infrastructure was also instrumental in supporting emergency assistance provided by other sources and in maintaining a link between the population and the central authorities. Notwithstanding the challenge represented by their implementation, raininfed agriculture investment projects may well represent a viable option and possiy a competitive one when compared to the lesser-performing schemes of the irrigated sub-sector.

Beneficiaries' participation

Except for the En Nahud Cooperative Credit Project, project designers did not generally expect much from beneficiaries' participation apart from a financial contribution to service costs, and consequently gave the matter little importance in the formulation of project strategies. The impoverishment of the population and the near collapse of essential public services represented severe constraints to the type of participation considered by the projects.

Nevertheless, the population appears to have participated beyond expectation, taking into account the prevailing conditions. For the most participatory activities, beneficiaries' involvement contributed to a quicker adaptation of the concerned projects to changing circumstances, improved project management and staff knowledge of the issues, and enhanced their responsiveness to farmers' expressed needs and preferences.

In this respect, Non-governmental Organizations' (NGOs) performance has been satisfactory in the few instances where they have been entrusted with implementation responsibilities in addition to their financial contribution. Good management, reasonably attractive conditions for staff, adequate supply of inputs (including spare parts) and active technical assistance to farmers from both national and expatriate experts explain the good progress of these components.

Hence the review of IFAD's experience in the Sudan reinforces the widely held view that beneficiaries' participation contributes to better project results, while improving benefit distribution among the target population. Insufficient participatioion has been identified as one reason for the lack of sustainability of several interventions. There is also positive evidence that people's participation tends to strengthen communities' cohesion and independence. While participation cannot alone ensure the sustainability of development efforts, it does reduce the risks involved and create conditions which are favourable to it. These benefits could have been more evident had project designers and managers been more open to people's participation.