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This paper shows that while anticipated increases in food demand by 2050 can largely be met regionally, potential yield increases or diversification will not contribute automatically to inclusive rural transformation. Instead, urbanization may potentially increase rural inequality and poverty.

Although the importance of inclusion in food system transformation is gaining traction, this paper argues that recent research and discourse on the topic is insufficient and that specific actions are needed to ensure that this transformation does not take place on the backs of the rural poor.

Using country-level data from 85 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), this paper outlines a food systems index (FSI) and analyses the linkages between food systems and structural and rural transformation, as well as population distributions.