Knowledge

Projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that, in the future, warming in Latin America could range from 1-4 degrees Celsius to 2-6 degrees Celsius, depending on the various climate scenarios. As land-use changes in Latin America have intensified the use of natural resources, land degradation and desertification have accelerated. The IPCC predicts that, by the 2050s, about 50 per cent of agricultural land in the region will be subject to desertification, and in some areas salinization. From the Amazon rainforest and the high mountains of the Andes to the coral reefs of the Caribbean and the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, Latin America and the Caribbean is host to unique ecosystems and biodiversity of global importance. Despite the region’s relatively small contribution to global warming, its natural environments and resource-dependent economies are threatened by the impact of climate change, and poor and marginalized rural communities are at greatest risk. 

The average temperature in the Asia and Pacific region could rise by some 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2030 and between 1 and 7 degrees Celsius by 2070. Annual rainfall is also expected to increase in several parts of Asia while arid and semi-arid areas would become drier. The areas predicted to get more annual rainfall would nonetheless suffer decreased water availability as the rainfall would be concentrated during the rainy season in fewer incidences of highintensity rainfall – with massive run-off and floods expected to be the result. Rising sea levels will affect a significant number of countries in the region, with small atoll Pacific Island countries, Bangladesh, the Maldives and Viet Nam particularly hard hit. In the past 50 years, Viet Nam has experienced a 50-centimetre sea-level rise, as recorded in the Hon Dau station. It is expected that a 30-centimetre increase will be experienced in the Mekong Delta by 2050, and this increase, coupled with salinity intrusion, will lead to the loss of some 420,000 hectares of arable land. The projected sea-level rise is likely to result in significant losses of coastal ecosystems. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes with high confidence (about an 8 out of 10 chance of an event happening) that 1 million people along the coasts of South and South-East Asia will be at risk from flooding.

The Near East and North Africa region is one of the world's driest and most water-scarce regions. In many areas in the region, demand for water already outstrips supply. Although the region contributes relatively little to greenhouse gas emissions, it will be among those hardest hit by climate change. Climate experts predict that, in future, the climate will become hotter, drier and more variable. Over the next 15 to 20 years, average temperatures are estimated to rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius, and possibly up to 4 degrees Celsius. Higher temperatures and reduced precipitation will increase the occurrence of drought, as is already evident in the western part of North Africa. Densely populated low-lying coastal areas in Egypt, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates are particularly at risk from rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion into agricultural land.

Agriculture plays a significant role in Africa, accounting for about 30 per cent of GDP south of the Sahara, as well as a significant proportion of export value. Not surprisingly, in most African countries, 60 per cent or more of employees work in agriculture.
Yet this barely scrapes the surface of Africa’s promise. Only 6 per cent of cultivated land is irrigated in Africa, compared with 37 per cent in Asia, for example. Africa also has the largest share of uncultivated land with rain-fed crop potential in the world. In addition, African farmers use substantially less fertilizer per hectare than counterparts in East Asia and the Pacific.

Improving the livelihoods of the rural poor is at the heart of IFAD’s work, and maximizing agriculture’s contribution to improving nutrition is an essential
part of that mission. Of course, other sectors have roles to play, but good nutrition begins with food and agriculture.

Water lies at the heart of sustainable development and is essential for economic growth, poverty reduction and environmental sustainability. It is the basis of human and environmental health, energy security, sustainable urbanization and the ability of rural women and men in developing countries to pursue productive activities. 

But one billion people still lack access to safe water and even more lack access to basic sanitation. Around three quarters of the world’s poorest and hungriest people live in rural areas, often forgotten and bypassed by economic growth and development programmes. The majority of rural people depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, but face numerous barriers in accessing services and securing vital resources, including water.

Despite strong and sustained economic growth over the past two decades, and a considerable reduction in national poverty rates, poverty in rural LaoPeople’s Democratic Republic (PDR) affects 30 per cent of the population. IFAD’s engagement in Lao PDR is guided by a country strategy that focuses on three primary goals: improved community-based access to, and management of, land and natural resources; improved access to advisory services and inputs for sustainable, adaptive and integrated farming systems; and improved access to markets for selected products.

Mexico is an upper-middle-income country with numerous policy initiatives aimed at addressing poverty and improving the well-being of both rural andurban populations. However, the country suffers from low productivity, low levels of GDP growth, and persistent poverty. Poverty is especially high in rural regions: in 2012, as much as 61 per cent of the rural population was categorized as poor (compared with 45 per cent of the total population) after little change over the past two decades.

Tajikistan is the poorest of the former Soviet republics, and 77 per cent of its population lives in rural areas. Rural livelihoods typically depend on subsistence farming, livestock and remittances, with livestock ownership being a key component in income generation and diversification. In poor and remote agroecological regions the production of angora (which is processed into mohair) and cashgora goats often represents the only source of livelihood, particularly for poorer households. However, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the sector has been constrained by the absence of goat breeding programmes, the limited harvesting and processing skills of small producers, and the lack of access to high-value markets. These factors have had direct impacts on the incomes of poor rural households, and particularly women, in Tajikistan.

Cooperatives play a significant role in the economies of the five countries of EAC. There are more than 30,000 registered cooperatives in the region and the movement employs – directly or indirectly – more than 15 million people. About half of these cooperatives are related to agriculture. Savings and credit cooperatives are also becoming increasingly popular in the region.